The recent rendezvous between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and key international figures, including US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, underscores a notable shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus region.

Against the backdrop of the aftermath of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and Russia’s assertive actions towards Ukraine, this meeting carries profound implications.

Russia’s waning influence in the post-Soviet sphere, although not officially acknowledged in Moscow, is becoming increasingly evident.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the trilateral assembly between the United States, European Union, and Armenia, hinting at the Kremlin’s discomfort with the changing dynamics.

Moreover, Russia’s inability to articulate a coherent regional strategy, particularly evident in recent developments in the South Caucasus, highlights a growing disconnect.

Armenia, while aiming to distance itself from Moscow without severing ties entirely, has taken the decision to suspend its involvement in Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) integration projects in the region.

However, Armenia’s tangible engagement within the CSTO has historically been minimal, given the amicable relations all CSTO member states maintain with Azerbaijan, indicating limited potential involvement in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.

Consequently, Armenia finds itself compelled to explore alternative security and negotiating avenues with Azerbaijan, particularly in Europe and the United States.

Notably, dialogue between the United States and Turkey could lay the groundwork for fostering a secure environment in the South Caucasus, thereby safeguarding territorial integrity.

The situation in Georgia adds further complexity, given the effective occupation of part of its territory by the Russian Federation.

Nevertheless, both Azerbaijan and Armenia harbour hopes for preserving their territorial integrity and integrating into more substantial frameworks than those established by Russia, which aimed to gradually erode the sovereignty of former Soviet republics.

In the Azerbaijani capital, the trilateral summit triggered visible irritation, as evidenced by President Ilham Aliyev’s candid remarks preceding his meeting with Blinken and von der Leyen.

President Aliyev’s desire to maintain a position of power in balancing relations between Russia and the West is clear. In contrast, Armenia’s strained relationship with the Russian Federation in light of recent events underscores its divergence from Moscow’s influence.

The entry of the United States and the European Union into the region, alongside France’s growing interest, reshapes existing perceptions.

Negotiation, rather than imposition, emerges as a necessity, not only with Armenia but also with other international stakeholders.

Consideration of Turkey’s interests in maintaining ties with the United States and the delineation of certain red lines for President Erdoğan become imperative.

President Aliyev’s experience with Turkey’s consent to Sweden’s NATO accession serves as a pertinent lesson. Turkish-American relations hold significance for both Washington and Ankara, underscoring the value of diplomatic engagements.

The statements following the Armenia-European Union-United States summit underscore the paramount importance of Armenia’s democratic processes and pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan for the international community.

This shift promises transformative implications for the region, potentially diminishing the long-standing influence of the Russian Federation, which historically sought to maintain Armenia and Azerbaijan within a geopolitical quagmire.

In conclusion, the trilateral meeting signifies a pivotal juncture in recalibrating regional dynamics and fostering a more balanced geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan can chart their courses independently of Moscow’s shadow.

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